Can the new-look Mets win the NL East?

This post was originally written for and posted in its entirety at Statistically Speaking at the Most Valuable Network. When you’re done reading it, please make sure to check out other sites at MVN and its sister site All-Baseball.com.

One of the most aggressive teams this off-season has been the New York Mets. They went out and landed a new first baseman, a new catcher, a flame-throwing lefty closer, and a 47-year-old back-up first baseman. But will it be enough to unseat the Atlanta Braves and win the NL East?

I hate to speak out against the Braves. For the last three years, I’ve been predicting the end of the Braves’ run and every year the Philadelphia Phillies or Florida Marlins, the two teams I’ve recently picked to win the division, have fallen short. But for all of the Braves’ past success, I wonder if maybe the Mets could win the first NL East division crown not awarded to the Atlanta Braves.

In 2005, the Braves won the NL with 90 wins, hardly an imposing number. And they edged the Phillies by just two games. Their margin for error is slim. So how many games would the Mets need to win? Well, since the advent of the three-division system and the first crowing of a division winner in 1995, the Braves have won the division with an average total of 97 wins. To me, that total seems slightly on the high side. Considering the more division-centric schedules baseball currently employs, I would expect that the Mets would have to win around 95 games to secure the division crown.

To see whether or not they would get to 95 wins, I want to take a look at the 2005 win share totals of the 2006 Mets to see, hypothetically, how the 2006 Mets would have fared in 2005.

To continue reading “Can the new-look Mets win the NL East?” please click here. Be sure to check out the rest of the Most Valuable Network while you’re there.

Advertisements

RSS River Ave. Blues

  • Tuesday Night Open Thread January 24, 2018
    ?Want to work for the Yankees? They’re looking for a Player Development Quantitative Analyst. You have to be extremely qualified and willing to both travel a lot and not make much money. That’s usually how these baseball jobs go. Front office staffer is not the most financially rewarding position. But, it is a job in […] The post Tuesday Night Open Thread ap […]
    Mike Axisa
  • Masahiro Tanaka won the slow 2017-18 offseason by avoiding it entirely January 23, 2018
    Defining the winners of the 2017-18 MLB offseason is a difficult task. Free agent signings have been sparse and few blockbuster trades have reshaped the competitive landscape. There hasn’t been one team, perhaps outside the Angels, that has clearly gone from pretender to contender in the past few months. Surely, Giancarlo Stanton and Marcell Ozuna […] The po […]
    Steven Tydings
  • Prospect Profile: Thairo Estrada January 23, 2018
    Thairo Estrada | IF Background Thairo Estrada signed out of Bejuma, Venezuela for the bargain price of $49,000 way back in November of 2012. He was relatively unheralded, as evidenced by both the price tag and how late he signed, and was something of an afterthought in a class in which the Yankees jumped all […] The post Prospect Profile: Thairo Estrada appe […]
    Domenic Lanza
  • Thoughts three weeks before pitchers and catchers report to Spring Training January 23, 2018
    We are exactly three weeks away from the biggest non-news day of the year. Pitchers and catchers reporting marks the beginning of Spring Training and the beginning of the long marathon that is the new baseball season, but nothing really happens that day. Still exciting though. Anyway, I have some thoughts, so let’s get to […] The post Thoughts three weeks be […]
    Mike Axisa
  • Monday Night Open Thread January 23, 2018
    ?Four years ago today, the Yankees got their man and signed Masahiro Tanaka to a seven-year contract. For a while that offseason it appeared he wouldn’t be posted, but MLB and NPB worked things out, and Tanaka has been a Yankee ever since. Even after the elbow injury and his rough 2017 regular season, Tanaka […] The post Monday Night Open Thread appeared fir […]
    Mike Axisa
  • Yankees land six on Baseball America’s top 100 prospects list January 22, 2018
    Spring Training is three weeks away and that means it is top 100 prospect season. All the usual publications will be updating their lists in the coming days and weeks. Earlier today the gang at Baseball America released their 2018 top 100 prospects list, which is topped by Braves OF Ronald Acuna. Angels RHP/DH Shohei […] The post Yankees land six on Baseball […]
    Mike Axisa
  • The case for trading Brett Gardner to make room for Darvish January 22, 2018
    The other day, Steven wrote about the rationale of trading David Robertson to clear some salary room to fit Yu Darvish’s hypothetical contract under the $197 million luxury tax threshold. Today, I’m here to make a case for trading away another established veteran player with a +$10M salary: Brett Gardner. We’ve talked about the Yankees’ […] The post The case […]
    Sung-Min Kim
  • Sorting out the Yankees’ potential non-roster Spring Training invitees for 2018 January 22, 2018
    Pitchers and catchers report to Tampa three weeks from tomorrow, and at some point soon, likely within the next two weeks, the Yankees will announce their 2018 Spring Training invitees. These are non-40-man roster players who get a chance to come to big league camp to strut their stuff. Some non-roster invitees are top prospects, […] The post Sorting out the […]
    Mike Axisa
  • Fan Confidence Poll: January 22nd, 2018 January 22, 2018
    2017 Regular Season Record: 91-71 (858 RS, 660 RA, 100-62 pythag. record), second in ALE 2017 Postseason Record: 7-6 (51 RS, 42 RA), won AL WC Game, won ALDS, lost ALCS Top stories from last week: There continue to be rumors connecting the Yankees to Yu Darvish. Unless he signs dirt cheap, there’s no way […] The post Fan Confidence Poll: January 22nd, 2018 a […]
    Mike Axisa
  • Weekend Open Thread January 21, 2018
    ?I finally had a chance to read Kiley McDaniel’s piece on the stats vs. scouts debate, which really isn’t a debate anymore. Every team uses both. There are a few clubs that lean analytical — from what I understand, the Rays use algorithms for basically everything, including the draft — but the very best organizations […] The post Weekend Open Thread appeared […]
    Mike Axisa

Blog Stats

  • 62,643 hits

%d bloggers like this: