What’s on second? Well, it shouldn’t be Soriano

During a slow week for baseball news, an item on Alfonso Soriano piqued my curiosity in ESPN’s Insider-only rumor mill. With Soriano voicing his displeasure at potentially moving to the outfield for the Washington Nationals in 2006, some teams, including the always-active Boston Red Sox, have called Jim Bowden searching for a deal.

The way I see it, however, any team inquiring after Soriano are blinded by his reputation as a power-hitting second baseman. But his recent track record would suggest that his presence would hardly help a team that needs him.

First, let’s look at fielding. Fielding has long been hard to quantify, and numerous writers across the Internet have tried to come up with better metrics for fielding. I’m going to call on Baseball Prospectus’ FRAA (Fielding Runs Above Average).

When it comes to fielding, Soriano is downright awful at second. In 2005, he managed a career-low -25 FRAA. You’re reading that right; it’s a negative number. For all of his talk about not wanting to move from second base, Alfonso Soriano isn’t even a good second baseman.

On the offensive side, the almost-30-year-old has a 162-game career average line of .280/.320/.500 with 33 home runs and 137 RBIs. He shows exceptional power but no on-base ability. He has never managed an OBP over .338, and his OBP has dropped to .308 since his 2003 season. Despite this infrequent appearances on the base paths, he still managed 21 BRAA or Batting Runs Above Average in 2005.

Some simple and statistically sloppy arithmetic shows a total 2005 RAA (runs above average) for Soriano of -4. While he had a WARP-3 (wins above replacement player adjusted for all-time) of 4.9, this simply shows he’s better than a replacement-level player. He’s not producing at the level of an average second baseman, and this would hurt any team that could land that so-called average second baseman.

So now enter the Nationals. A few weeks ago, I looked at how Soriano will suffer offensively in RFK Stadium. He may hit just 10 home runs at home this season if he remains a member of the Nationals. With a shortcoming of power, you can bet that Soriano will be swinging at even more pitches. And missing. His fielding will probably remain the same; his offense will decline. He’ll be worth less to the Nationals than he was as a below-average player on the Rangers.

With that in mind, does it make sense for the Red Sox or any other team to attempt to acquire Alfonso Soriano at the cost of Major League pitching? Not at all. Bowden, a bold GM, is sure to ask for a top-line pitcher or pitching prospect for Soriano, and the second baseman, just one season away from free agency, isn’t worth it. He is after all below average in some regards.

In the end, I don’t blame Soriano for being unhappy with landing on the Nationals. In his contract season, his offense will decline and he’s being asked to switch positions from second base where his 38 home runs look great to left field where his .308 OBP looks awful. He’ll be 31 at the start of his new contract, and he knows he will probably have the chance to really cash in just once in his career. It would make sense for him to lobby for a trade. It just doesn’t make sense for any team to give up a lot to sign him.

Advertisements

1 Response to “What’s on second? Well, it shouldn’t be Soriano”


  1. 1 jer January 3, 2006 at 2:08 pm

    I think it was a stupid trade, and Washington needs to deal him while some clubs still think he is worth something, and before he becomes a huge distraction to the team.

    I also agree with you about Buster Olney, I am going through withdrawal right now. He alone makes ESPN Insider worth the money.


Comments are currently closed.



RSS River Ave. Blues

  • Game 74: A Sonny Saturday June 23, 2018
    The Yankees lost for only the fifth time in their last 22 games last night, and you know what’s crazy? Two of those five losses were by one run and the other three were by two runs. Even when they lose, the Yankees are in every game right to the end. Losing winnable games stinks, […] The post Game 74: A Sonny Saturday appeared first on River Avenue Blues. […]
    Mike Axisa
  • Saturday Links: Watson, Giambi, YES Network, Kay, Singleton June 23, 2018
    The Yankees and Rays will continue their three-game series with the middle game later this afternoon. Here are some links and notes to check out in the meantime. Yankees pursued Watson over the winter According to Joel Sherman, the Yankees tried to sign left-hander Tony Watson during the offseason. He instead signed a luxury tax […] The post Saturday Links: […]
    Mike Axisa
  • Rays 2, Yankees 1: A forgettable loss if there ever was one June 23, 2018
    Ugh, I hate that the Yankees only win most games and not all games. The Yanks dropped a completely forgettable series opener to the Rays on Friday night. Giancarlo Stanton made a great catch and … that’s it? Nothing else of note happened. The final score was 2-1. Sabathia Bends, Breaks Only A Little Pretty […] The post Rays 2, Yankees 1: A forgettable loss i […]
    Mike Axisa
  • DotF: Clarke Schmidt debuts following Tommy John surgery June 23, 2018
    MLB.com posted their midseason top 100 prospects list today. Three Yankees made it: OF Estevan Florial (No. 39), LHP Justus Sheffield (No. 42), and RHP Albert Abreu (No. 65). 2B Gleyber Torres and 3B Miguel Andujar are no longer prospect eligible while RHP Chance Adams, who was No. 66 before the season, has dropped out […] The post DotF: Clarke Schmidt debut […]
    Mike Axisa
  • Game 73: A Trip to the Trop June 22, 2018
    The season is nearly halfway complete, and the Yankees are just now making their first trip to Tropicana Field. Very weird schedule this year. I’m not complaining. The Trop stinks. Just pointing out the schedule is weird. First of three in St. Pete tonight. As for the Yankees, my goodness they are red hot right […] The post Game 73: A Trip to the Trop appear […]
    Mike Axisa
  • 6/22 to 6/24 Series Preview: Tampa Bay Rays June 22, 2018
    For the first time this season, the Yankees will play in Tropicana Field. They’re in Tampa for three games this weekend. The Last Time They Met It seems like just yesterday that the Yankees hosted the Rays, but that’s not quite true; in fact, it was last week. The Rays visited the Bronx last weekend, […] The post 6/22 to 6/24 Series Preview: Tampa Bay Rays a […]
    Domenic Lanza
  • Yankeemetrics: Bomber Brooms, Seattle Sweep (June 19-21) June 22, 2018
    Domingo+Dingers=Win After a quick trip to the nation’s capital, the Yankees were back at the friendly confines on Tuesday night and opened their series with an easy 7-2 win over the Mariners. Domingo German was absolutely brilliant in his eighth career start. After giving up a run (unearned) in the first inning, he retired 19(!) […] The post Yankeemetrics: B […]
    Katie Sharp
  • Mailbag: Torres, Adams, Loaisiga, Gardner, Drury, Judge, Bundy June 22, 2018
    There are ten questions in this week’s mailbag. RABmailbag (at) gmail (dot) com is the mailbag email address, so send your questions there each week. Ryan asks: Any explanation for the power Torres is showing in the majors? I think I read he had only 24 homers in like 1,500 at bats in the minors. […] The post Mailbag: Torres, Adams, Loaisiga, Gardner, Drury, […]
    Mike Axisa
  • DotF: Wagner goes deep yet again in Tampa’s win June 22, 2018
    Triple-A Scranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders (3-1 win over Lehigh Valley) SS Tyler Wade: 1-4, 1 2B, 1 SB — 24-for-73 (.329) with five doubles, a triple, and two homers in his last 17 games … that looks a lot more like pre-2018 Tyler Wade 1B Brandon Drury: 1-4, 1 2B, 2 RBI, 1 K — second start […] The post DotF: Wagner goes deep yet again in Tampa’s win appeared […]
    Mike Axisa
  • Thursday Night Open Thread June 21, 2018
    ?Good game today, great series this week. The Yankees finished the three-game sweep of the Mariners this afternoon and they are now 28 games — 28 games! — over .500 on June 21st. Feels awesome. The 2018 Yankees are not perfect, far from it, but damn, is this team good or what? Great team and […] The post Thursday Night Open Thread appeared first on River Ave […]
    Mike Axisa

Blog Stats

  • 62,703 hits
Advertisements

%d bloggers like this: