Archive for the 'Rumors' Category

What’s on second? Well, it shouldn’t be Soriano

During a slow week for baseball news, an item on Alfonso Soriano piqued my curiosity in ESPN’s Insider-only rumor mill. With Soriano voicing his displeasure at potentially moving to the outfield for the Washington Nationals in 2006, some teams, including the always-active Boston Red Sox, have called Jim Bowden searching for a deal.

The way I see it, however, any team inquiring after Soriano are blinded by his reputation as a power-hitting second baseman. But his recent track record would suggest that his presence would hardly help a team that needs him.

First, let’s look at fielding. Fielding has long been hard to quantify, and numerous writers across the Internet have tried to come up with better metrics for fielding. I’m going to call on Baseball Prospectus’ FRAA (Fielding Runs Above Average).

When it comes to fielding, Soriano is downright awful at second. In 2005, he managed a career-low -25 FRAA. You’re reading that right; it’s a negative number. For all of his talk about not wanting to move from second base, Alfonso Soriano isn’t even a good second baseman.

On the offensive side, the almost-30-year-old has a 162-game career average line of .280/.320/.500 with 33 home runs and 137 RBIs. He shows exceptional power but no on-base ability. He has never managed an OBP over .338, and his OBP has dropped to .308 since his 2003 season. Despite this infrequent appearances on the base paths, he still managed 21 BRAA or Batting Runs Above Average in 2005.

Some simple and statistically sloppy arithmetic shows a total 2005 RAA (runs above average) for Soriano of -4. While he had a WARP-3 (wins above replacement player adjusted for all-time) of 4.9, this simply shows he’s better than a replacement-level player. He’s not producing at the level of an average second baseman, and this would hurt any team that could land that so-called average second baseman.

So now enter the Nationals. A few weeks ago, I looked at how Soriano will suffer offensively in RFK Stadium. He may hit just 10 home runs at home this season if he remains a member of the Nationals. With a shortcoming of power, you can bet that Soriano will be swinging at even more pitches. And missing. His fielding will probably remain the same; his offense will decline. He’ll be worth less to the Nationals than he was as a below-average player on the Rangers.

With that in mind, does it make sense for the Red Sox or any other team to attempt to acquire Alfonso Soriano at the cost of Major League pitching? Not at all. Bowden, a bold GM, is sure to ask for a top-line pitcher or pitching prospect for Soriano, and the second baseman, just one season away from free agency, isn’t worth it. He is after all below average in some regards.

In the end, I don’t blame Soriano for being unhappy with landing on the Nationals. In his contract season, his offense will decline and he’s being asked to switch positions from second base where his 38 home runs look great to left field where his .308 OBP looks awful. He’ll be 31 at the start of his new contract, and he knows he will probably have the chance to really cash in just once in his career. It would make sense for him to lobby for a trade. It just doesn’t make sense for any team to give up a lot to sign him.

Advertisements

RSS River Ave. Blues

  • Yankees 3, Orioles 2: Hicks sends Yankees to the postseason with a walk-off double September 23, 2018
    Postseason bound! Saturday evening the Yankees officially clinched a spot in the 2018 postseason with a 3-2 walk-off win against the Orioles in eleven innings. The Blue Jays beat the Rays earlier in the day to help the Yankees out. At worst, the Yankees will be the second wildcard team. The magic number for homefield […] The post Yankees 3, Orioles 2: Hicks […]
    Mike
  • Game 154: The Penultimate Home Game September 22, 2018
    Today is a special day. You know what today is? Today is the first day this season the Yankees have a chance to clinch a postseason spot. A win over the Orioles and the Rays losing to the Blue Jays will do the trick. It has to be both. Either/or won’t do it. If all […] The post Game 154: The Penultimate Home Game appeared first on River Avenue Blues.
    Mike
  • Saturday Links: deGrom, Torres, Sheffield, Triple-A September 22, 2018
    The Yankees and Orioles continue their three-game series later this afternoon, with the penultimate regular season game at Yankee Stadium this year. That’s a 4pm ET start. Remember when they played baseball at 1pm ET on Saturdays? Those were the days. Anyway, here are some notes to check out. Mets needed top young players for […] The post Saturday Links: deG […]
    Mike
  • Yankees 10, Orioles 8: Sometimes you have to outscore your own bullpen September 22, 2018
    I wouldn’t wait around for this one to show up on Yankees Classics, folks. The Yankees opened the final home series of the regular season with an ugly 10-8 win over the Orioles on Friday, but a win is a win, and the magic number to clinch a postseason spot is down to two. Could […] The post Yankees 10, Orioles 8: Sometimes you have to outscore your own bullp […]
    Mike
  • Game 153: The Final Home Series September 21, 2018
    So here we are. The final home series of the regular season. Every year the season seems to go by a little quicker. The Yankees open a three-game series with the oh so terrible Orioles tonight and they could really use a sweep. I mean, it’s not imperative, but it sure would be nice to […] The post Game 153: The Final Home Series appeared first on River Avenu […]
    Mike
  • 9/21 to 9/23 Series Preview: Baltimore Orioles September 21, 2018
    After taking two of three from the Red Sox, the Yankees ride high into their final home series of the season. Their reward is a three-game set with the worst team in baseball, the Baltimore Orioles. The Last Time They Met The Bombers took four games in three days from the Orioles on Players’ Weekend […] The post 9/21 to 9/23 Series Preview: Baltimore Orioles […]
    Steven Tydings
  • RAB Live Chat September 21, 2018
    The post RAB Live Chat appeared first on River Avenue Blues.
    Mike
  • Yankeemetrics: Two not enough, Sox celebrate (Sept. 18-20) September 21, 2018
    Neil Walker, the Clutch Home Run Corker For at least one day, the Yankees staved off an embarrassing AL East championship watch party in the Bronx as they rallied for a 3-2 victory in Tuesday’s series opener. The Yankees won despite just three hits, the second time this season they’ve pulled off that feat at […] The post Yankeemetrics: Two not enough, Sox ce […]
    Katie Sharp
  • Mailbag: Bird, Chatwood, Sanchez, Ryu, Gardner, Voit September 21, 2018
    There are eight questions in this week’s mailbag. You can send all your questions to RABmailbag (at) gmail (dot) com each week and I’ll answer as many as I can. Yogi asks: How close are we to seeing Bird getting non-tendered this offseason? At what point do the Yankees determine he is a “change of […] The post Mailbag: Bird, Chatwood, Sanchez, Ryu, Gardner, […]
    Mike
  • Red Sox 11, Yankees 6: Stanton’s slam not enough, Red Sox clinch it in Bronx September 21, 2018
    The Yankees, after all, lost a game in this series and let the Red Sox celebrate the division title in Bronx. It happens. Another noteworthy thing that happened in the past three games is that they took two out of the three from the hottest team in baseball this year. A sweep would have been […] The post Red Sox 11, Yankees 6: Stanton’s slam not enough, Red […]
    Sung-Min Kim

Blog Stats

  • 62,721 hits
Advertisements